The 2024 Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections have sparked significant interest, especially as they are the first to be held since the abrogation of Article 370. With exit poll predictions now being released, early indications show that the election could lead to a closely contested outcome.

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Here’s a breakdown of the exit poll predictions and what they reveal about the political landscape in Jammu & Kashmir.

BJP’s Strong Performance in Jammu

According to exit polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has established a solid presence in the Jammu region. Most exit polls suggest that the BJP could secure 27-32 seats out of the 43 available in this area. With a 41% vote share in Jammu, the BJP looks poised to dominate the region. This strong performance reflects the party’s influence in the largely Hindu-majority region, where it has built a strong voter base over the years.

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NC-Congress Alliance Leads in Kashmir Valley

While the BJP leads in Jammu, the National Conference (NC)–Congress alliance appears to have a significant advantage in the Kashmir Valley. The alliance is projected to win between 35-45 seats out of 47 seats, with a sizeable vote share of around 36%. In contrast, the BJP’s influence in the valley is minimal, with its vote share plummeting to just 3%. The Kashmir Valley, traditionally a stronghold for the NC, seems to favor the alliance, indicating a more competitive and potentially fragmented result.

PDP’s Declining Influence

The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), once a key player in Jammu & Kashmir’s political landscape, is expected to face a sharp decline in its influence. Exit polls predict that the party will secure only 0-2 seats, with a meager 5% vote share. This marks a significant fall for the party, which had previously held considerable sway, particularly in the Kashmir Valley.

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Exit Poll Predictions: Breakdown by Source

Several major exit polls have provided projections for the 2024 Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections. Here’s a summaryof various Exit Poll Predictions:

• India Today-CVoter Exit Poll: BJP is projected to secure 27-31 seats in Jammu, while the NC-Congress alliance is expected to win 40-48 seats across Jammu & Kashmir. The PDP might only secure 0-2 seats.
• Poll of Polls: The NC-Congress alliance leads with 46-50 seats, followed by BJP with 23-27 seats, and the PDP with 7-11 seats.
• Matrize Exit Poll: BJP is predicted to win 25 seats, NC 15 seats, Congress 12 seats, and the PDP 28 seats.
• Gulistan News: NC and BJP are neck-and-neck, each predicted to secure 28-30 seats, while Congress is expected to win 3-6 seats, and the PDP 5-7 seats.
• Electoral Edge Exit Poll: NC is projected to secure 33 seats, BJP 27 seats, Congress 12 seats, and the PDP 8 seats.
• Dainik Bhaskar: BJP 20 – 25, NC + Congress:35 – 40, PDP: 4 – 7 and the Others: 12 – 16
• Axis My India: BJP: 24 – 34, NC+ Congress: 35 – 45, PDP: 4 – 6 and the Others: 8 – 23

Key Takeaways from Exit Polls

Most exit polls suggest that the NC-Congress alliance is poised to emerge as the leading force in Jammu & Kashmir, particularly in the Kashmir Valley. Meanwhile, the BJP is expected to be the dominant party in Jammu, securing a significant number of seats but likely falling short of a majority. The PDP, once a prominent player, is anticipated to have minimal impact in this election. Exit poll preditions for Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections showed no political party is expected to reach the halfway mark of 46 seats in the Union territory. 

Additionally, smaller parties and independent candidates are likely to play a pivotal role, especially if the results lead to a hung assembly. This scenario could position Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP or other regional players as potential kingmakers, determining the final power structure in Jammu & Kashmir.

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Voter Turnout and Polling Trends

The voter turnout in the 2024 Jammu & Kashmir elections was impressive, with 63.88% of eligible voters participating. The turnout was particularly high in the third phase of polling, with 69.69% of voters casting their ballots. The first and second phases saw voter turnouts of 61.38% and 57.31%, respectively. The peaceful conclusion of the three-phase elections on October 1 marked a significant achievement for the region, given the complex political and security environment.

First Legislative Assembly Election in Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory: Key Details

This is first election to the Legislative Assembly in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir with last being held in 2014 when J&K was a State. The UT has 90-member Assembly for which election was held in three-phases and counting is scheduled to take place on October 8. However, there is a provision for nomination of five MLAs in the Assembly by the Lieutenant Governor on the advice of the Union Home Ministry which will take total number of MLAs to 95 and majority mark to 48 as the nominated MLAs have voting rights. The nominated MLAs will include two women, two Kashmiri Pandits including one of them a woman and one Pakistan occupied Jammu Kashmir (PoJK) refugee.

What’s Next: Results on October 8

While the exit polls provide a glimpse into potential outcomes, the actual results will be revealed on October 8, when the votes are counted. Until then, political parties and voters alike will be watching closely to see if the exit poll predictions hold true or if any surprises emerge on election day.

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Final Thoughts

The 2024 Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections are crucial, as they will set the stage for the region’s political future post-Article 370. With exit polls indicating a possible hung assembly, the final results could lead to new alliances and power dynamics in Jammu & Kashmir. The strong performance of the NC-Congress alliance in the valley and the BJP’s dominance in Jammu highlight the deep political divides within the region.

However, as with any election, it’s important to approach exit polls with caution. While they offer insights, the actual results could differ significantly, and only time will tell who will ultimately govern Jammu & Kashmir.

Stay tuned for the official results on October 8.