The latest weather bulletin issued at 1100 hrs IST on July 4, 2025, paints a concerning picture for both Jammu and Kashmir divisions. While Kashmir Division continues to experience above-normal temperatures, the Jammu Division braces for heavy rains, thunderstorms, gusty winds, and possible flash floods and landslides over the next 7 days.
Let’s take a detailed look at the latest weather observations, forecasts, and warnings that residents, tourists, and local authorities need to be aware of.
Temperature Overview (As of July 4, 2025)
Maximum Day Temperatures
- Kashmir Division: 3°C to 5°C above normal
- Jammu Division: 0°C to 2°C below normal
Hottest Places Today:
- Muzaffarabad (Kashmir): 40.5°C
- Kathua (Jammu): 36.2°C
Minimum Night Temperatures
- Kashmir Division: 4°C to 7°C above normal
- Jammu Division: 1°C to 5°C above normal
Coolest Locations Tonight:
- Gulmarg (Kashmir): 15.0°C
- Batote (Jammu): 19.9°C
Insight: The temperature anomalies in Kashmir highlight a warming trend. Higher-than-normal nighttime temperatures can impact agriculture, increase water stress, and influence health conditions, especially in the elderly and children.
Precipitation Summary
- July 4 (Today): Scattered light rain reported across Jammu & Kashmir
- Next 24 Hours Forecast: Scattered to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms expected across both divisions.
7-Day Weather Forecast Jammu & Kashmir (July 4–10, 2025)
| Date | Kashmir Division | Jammu Division |
|---|---|---|
| July 4 | Dry weather | Isolated thunderstorm/lightning with strong winds (30–40 kmph, gusting to 50 kmph) |
| July 5 | Isolated thunderstorm/lightning with gusty winds | Heavy rain, thunderstorms, lightning with landslide/flash flood/mudslide warnings |
| July 6 | Isolated thunderstorm/lightning with gusty winds | Heavy rain, thunderstorms, lightning and hazard alerts for vulnerable areas |
| July 7 | Isolated thunderstorm/lightning with gusty winds | Heavy rain & flood risks continue |
| July 8 | Isolated thunderstorm/lightning with gusty winds | Heavy rainfall, strong winds, flash floods likely |
| July 9 | Isolated thunderstorm/lightning | Heavy rain expected to persist |
| July 10 | Dry weather returns | Isolated thunderstorm/lightning with gusty winds |
Weather Warnings and Potential Hazards
For Jammu Division:
- Heavy rainfall (Isolated areas) likely for five consecutive days (July 5–9)
- Landslide, flash flood, and mudslide alerts issued for vulnerable areas, particularly hilly terrains like Poonch, Doda, Reasi, Udhampur, Ramban, and Rajouri
- Strong wind gusts (30–50 kmph) may cause tree fall, power outages, and travel disruptions
For Kashmir Division:
- Repeated forecast of thunderstorms with gusty winds
- Winds gusting up to 50 kmph could cause temporary road closures, especially in upper regions
What This Means for Locals and Tourists
Farmers
- Kharif crops, especially maize and paddy in Jammu, are at risk due to waterlogging or flooding
- Farmers advised to secure loose structures and avoid spraying during thunderstorm hours
Tourists
- Those planning to visit Kashmir Valley may enjoy slightly drier days but should still expect occasional storms
- Visitors to Jammu’s hill areas should avoid trekking or travel during peak rainfall hours
- Always check the MET forecast before venturing out
Commuters
- NH-44, the lifeline of Jammu-Kashmir, may face occasional disruptions
- Landslide-prone zones like Ramban-Banihal stretch may become hazardous
Understanding Rainfall Categories
The bulletin also outlines rainfall distribution terminology based on the percentage of stations reporting rainfall:
| % of Stations Reporting Rain | Category |
|---|---|
| 1–25% | Isolated (ISOL) |
| 26–50% | Scattered (SCT) |
| 51–75% | Fairly Widespread (FWS) |
| 76–100% | Widespread (WS) |
This classification helps understand how broad the impact of rain might be across different districts.
Tips to Stay Safe This Week
- Keep emergency contacts handy
- Stay updated with weather alerts via IMD or local news
- Avoid unnecessary travel during red-alert hours
- Don’t park vehicles under trees or near vulnerable slopes
- Avoid riverbanks and streams prone to flash flooding
As Jammu division prepares for a week of intense rain and Kashmir Division faces unusual warmth and gusty storms, it is crucial for residents, tourists, and local authorities to remain alert. With timely preparation and caution, risks to life and property can be minimized.
Stay safe, stay informed.
