Jammu and Kashmir continues to battle a severe seasonal rainfall deficit, 19 out of 20 districts in Jammu & Kashmir recording below-normal precipitation during the October–December 2025 period, triggering fresh concerns over agriculture, horticulture, and water security across the Union Territory.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Jammu and Kashmir received only 77.5 mm of rainfall against a normal average of 127.7 mm, reflecting an overall deficit of 39 per cent. The UT has officially been placed in the “deficient rainfall” category, underlining the gravity of the unfolding situation.
District-Wise Data Paints a Grim Picture
IMD’s district-wise rainfall analysis reveals widespread dry conditions across Kashmir, Jammu, and Ladakh regions.
- Shopian emerged as the worst-hit district, recording a massive 78% deficit, with just 21.8 mm rainfall against a normal 100.4 mm.
- Kishtwar followed closely with a 76% deficit, while Kulgam (65%), Budgam (59%), Baramulla (58%), Pulwama (52%), and Srinagar (51%) also fell into the large deficient category.
In the Ladakh region, despite lower climatological rainfall averages, Leh recorded a 72% deficit and Kargil 71%, adding to growing water scarcity fears in the cold desert region.
Jammu Division: Mixed but Concerning Trend
Several districts in the Jammu division also witnessed notable rainfall shortfalls.
- Reasi recorded a 14% deficit,
- Samba 13%, and
- Doda 8%,
while Rajouri remained near-normal with a marginal 1% deficit.
Poonch stood out as the only district with excess rainfall, receiving 109 mm against a normal 86.5 mm, marking a 26% increase.
Agriculture, Horticulture Under Stress
The prolonged dry spell has raised serious red flags for the rabi cropping season. Officials warn that low soil moisture could adversely impact crops like wheat and mustard, while the horticulture sector, particularly apple orchards, may face stress due to insufficient winter precipitation.
Hydrology experts have also cautioned that continued rainfall deficiency could lead to declining water levels in rivers, streams, and reservoirs, potentially affecting drinking water supply and hydropower generation in the coming months.
Weather Outlook: Little Relief in Sight
While the IMD has forecast brief spells of light rain or snowfall at isolated places between January 5 and 6, the overall outlook remains subdued.
The medium-range forecast (January 3–7) indicates generally cloudy skies across Jammu and Kashmir, with light rain or snowfall possible in Srinagar, Anantnag, Kupwara, and Doda on January 5 and 6.
- Srinagar temperatures are expected to hover between 8°C and 10°C during the day, with night temperatures dropping to around minus 3°C.
- Similar sub-zero nights are likely in Anantnag and Kupwara.
- Jammu, Kathua, Rajouri, and Udhampur are expected to experience partly cloudy conditions, with day temperatures ranging from 15°C to 20°C.
The extended-range outlook (January 2–8) suggests that rainfall will remain below normal across the UT, while both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to stay above normal, offering little immediate relief.
As Jammu and Kashmir grapples with this deepening rainfall crisis, experts stress the urgent need for effective water management, contingency planning, and climate-resilient agricultural strategies to mitigate long-term impacts.
